This is why the “assumptions” column is so important in project design. It gives the practitioner a false sense of safety from such skirmishes although they are intrinsic to the implementation process and critical to address if any semblance of success is to be achieved. Removed from the social, political, environmental and cultural attributes that background the development tapestry, it gives the practitioner an impetus to start with enthusiasm what will essentially end in catastrophe. It lulls the practitioner into a false sense of security and calmness and, at least initially, shields her from the fact that the situational implementation of a project will quickly degenerate, disintegrating into chaos.
Regional tensions are confined but continue to be a concern. The China-Japan market suffered significant decreases in Sep-2012 after Japan nationalised the disputed islands of Senkaku/Diaoyu. 1Q2014 seat capacity is still down 4.5% compared to pre-crisis levels in 2012.
Then, since moving from assumptions to assertions and from achievements to accomplishments is fraught with high levels of applicability of the chaos principle, for each activity, output and outcome, have a column named “reflections” which inform the project qualitatively on the fuzziness of the entire project process through language based on probabilistic logic that explicitly takes uncertainty and belief ownership into account and is based on thoughtful reasoning that understands that in development initiatives, there are no absolutes and that the truth value of an idea is simply an informed approximation based on consideration of the assertive factors.
Elsewhere the characterisation is that of nuances. Currency exchange rates are sharply impacting Japan, where the yen is down about 17%, while helping Chinese carriers with the appreciating yuan. Regional tensions continue to plague bilateral markets like Japan-Korea and China-Japan. There is growing sensitivity about unprofitable short-haul routes: Asiana will use a new single-class configuration while China Airlines and TransAsia expect to have new LCCs, adding more dual-brand strategies to the region, which otherwise lacks the vibrant LCC market of Southeast Asia – or Europe. Except in Japan, liberalisation has occurred more slowly in North Asia.
Changes occur in response to world issues and new global challenges but sometimes the generators of change are more local – a change of personnel, for example. Hopefully they are the result of thoughtful extensions to the discipline of architecture – the entrenchment of a new way of teaching which reflects life outside.
Imbalances between attitude and actions are also a concern in China, which has said it must encourage private capital in aviation as well the fostering of new carriers and in particular LCCs. But with airlines being seen by Beijing as serving national interests, and the general can-do attitude of China, the country is unlikely to cede valuable territory to foreign companies. Government-led reforms in China’s sector are, however, ushering in a number of worthwhile changes and new carriers, including private ones and LCCs, which have become a buzzword in Chinese aviation.